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World population 1950-2000 |
Increase rate 1950-2000 |
The world population is the total number of humans alive on the planet Earth at a given time. According to estimates published by the United States Census Bureau, the world population in June 2005 was ~6,450,000,0001. In line with population projections, this figure continues to grow at rates that are unprecedented prior to the 20th century. Approximately one fifth of all humans in the last six thousand years are currently alive. By some estimates, there are now one billion (thousand million) young people in the world between the ages of 15 and 24.
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When was six billion reached?
The United Nations Population Fund designated October 12, 1999 as the approximate day on which world population reached six billion. This was about 12 years after world population reached five billion, in 1987. The child that has been proclaimed by the United Nations Population Fund and welcomed by the U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan as the six billionth baby, was born on the designated day two minutes after midnight, not in India or China, as might be expected, but to Fatima Nevic and her husband Jasminko in Sarajevo, Bosnia.
Rate of population increase
The last 70 years of the 20th century saw the biggest increase in the world's population in human history. The following table shows when each billion milestone was met:
- 1 billion reached in 1802.
- 2 billion reached in 1927.
- 3 billion reached in 1961.
- 4 billion reached in 1974.
- 5 billion reached in 1987.
- 6 billion reached in 1999.
From the figures above, the world's population has tripled in 72 years, and doubled in 38 years up to the year of 1999.
Including a few more estimates (beginning with 250 million around AD 950 and ending with 8 billion in 2027), the world population was doubled by the following years (doubling times in parentheses):
- AD 950 (650) 1600 (202) 1802 (125) 1927 (44) 1971 (56) 2027,
or (beginning with 375 million around year 1420):
- 1420 (300) 1720 (155) 1875 (86) 1961 (38) 1999.
Note how, until recently, each doubling has taken roughly half as long as the previous doubling.
The UN estimated in 2000 that the world's population was then growing at the rate of 1.2 percent (or 77 million people) per year. This represents a decrease in the growth rate from its level in 1990, mostly due to decreasing birth rates.
As of 2004, the world's population is increasing at a rate of 75 million people per year.
Forecast of world population
The future growth of population is difficult to predict. Birth rates are declining slightly on average, but vary greatly between developed countries (where birth rates are often at or below replacement levels) and developing countries. Death rates can change unexpectedly due to disease, wars and catastrophes, or advances in medicine. The UN itself has issued multiple projections of future world population, based on different assumptions. Over the last 10 years, the UN has consistently revised its world population projections downward.
Current projections by the UN's Population Division, based on the 2004 revision of the World Population Prospects database 2, are as follows.
| Year | Population (billions) |
|---|---|
| 2010 | 6.8 |
| 2020 | 7.6 |
| 2030 | 8.2 |
| 2040 | 8.7 |
| 2050 | 9.1 |
Other projections of population growth predict that the world's population will eventually crest, though it is uncertain exactly when or how. In some scenarios, the population will crest as early as the mid-21st century at under 10 billion, due to gradually decreasing birth rates.
In less optimistic scenarios, disasters triggered by the growing population's demand for scarce resources will eventually lead to a sudden population crash, or even a Malthusian catastrophe (also see overpopulation).
Doomsayers
In 1798, Thomas Malthus predicted that population growth would eventually outrun food supply, resulting in catastrophe. In 1968 Paul R. Ehrlich reignited this argument with his book The Population Bomb, which helped give the issue significant mindshare throughout the 1960s and 1970s. The dire predictions of Ehrlich and other neo-Malthusians were vigourously challenged by a number of economists, notably Julian Simon.
On the opposite end of the spectrum there are a number of doomsayers who argue that today's low fertility rates will have severe negative consequences: Death of the West : How Dying Populations and Immigrant Invasions Imperil Our Country and Civilization, by Patrick Buchanan, The Empty Cradle: How Falling Birthrates Threaten World Prosperity, by Longman, and Fewer: How the New Demography of Depopulation Will Shape Our Future, by Wattenberg.
Child poverty has been linked to people having children before they have the means to care for them.
More recently, some scholars have put forward the Doomsday argument applying Bayesian probability to world population to argue that the end of humanity will come sooner than we usually think (toxic waste rather than food shortages).
Different continents
The vertical axis of the chart above is in thousands. Likewise, the population figures in the table below are in thousands.
| Year | World | Africa | Asia | Europe | Latin-America | North America | Oceania |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1750 | 791 000 | 106 000 | 502 000 | 163 000 | 16 000 | 2 000 | 2 000 |
| 1800 | 978 000 | 107 000 | 635 000 | 203 000 | 24 000 | 7 000 | 2 000 |
| 1850 | 1 262 000 | 111 000 | 809 000 | 276 000 | 38 000 | 26 000 | 2 000 |
| 1900 | 1 650 000 | 133 000 | 947 000 | 408 000 | 74 000 | 82 000 | 6 000 |
| 1950 | 2 518 629 | 221 214 | 1 398 488 | 547 403 | 167 097 | 171 616 | 12 812 |
| 1955 | 2 755 823 | 246 746 | 1 541 947 | 575 184 | 190 797 | 186 884 | 14 265 |
| 1960 | 3 021 475 | 277 398 | 1 701 336 | 604 401 | 218 300 | 204 152 | 15 888 |
| 1965 | 3 334 874 | 313 744 | 1 899 424 | 634 026 | 250 452 | 219 570 | 17 657 |
| 1970 | 3 692 492 | 357 283 | 2 143 118 | 655 855 | 284 856 | 231 937 | 19 443 |
| 1975 | 4 068 109 | 408 160 | 2 397 512 | 675 542 | 321 906 | 243 425 | 21 564 |
| 1980 | 4 434 682 | 469 618 | 2 632 335 | 692 431 | 361 401 | 256 068 | 22 828 |
| 1985 | 4 830 979 | 541 814 | 2 887 552 | 706 009 | 401 469 | 269 456 | 24 678 |
| 1990 | 5 263 593 | 622 443 | 3 167 807 | 721 582 | 441 525 | 283 549 | 26 687 |
| 1995 | 5 674 380 | 707 462 | 3 430 052 | 727 405 | 481 099 | 299 438 | 28 924 |
| 2000 | 6 070 581 | 795 671 | 3 679 737 | 727 986 | 520 229 | 315 915 | 31 043 |
| 2005 | 6 453 628 | 887 964 | 3 917 508 | 724 722 | 558 281 | 332 156 | 32 998 |
| 2010 | 6 830 283 | 984 225 | 4 148 948 | 719 714 | 594 436 | 348 139 | 34 821 |
| 2015 | 7 197 247 | 1 084 540 | 4 370 522 | 713 402 | 628 260 | 363 953 | 36 569 |
| 2020 | 7 540 237 | 1 187 584 | 4 570 131 | 705 410 | 659 248 | 379 589 | 38 275 |
| 2025 | 7 851 455 | 1 292 085 | 4 742 232 | 696 036 | 686 857 | 394 312 | 39 933 |
| 2030 | 8 130 149 | 1 398 004 | 4 886 647 | 685 440 | 711 058 | 407 532 | 41 468 |
| 2035 | 8 378 184 | 1 504 179 | 5 006 700 | 673 638 | 731 591 | 419 273 | 42 803 |
| 2040 | 8 593 591 | 1 608 329 | 5 103 021 | 660 645 | 747 953 | 429 706 | 43 938 |
| 2045 | 8 774 394 | 1 708 407 | 5 175 311 | 646 630 | 759 955 | 439 163 | 44 929 |
| 2050 | 8 918 724 | 1 803 298 | 5 222 058 | 631 938 | 767 685 | 447 931 | 45 815 |
External links
- World Population Prospects. Retrieved April 7, 2005.
- The World in Balance Transcript of two-part PBS' Nova on World Population
- BBC (1999). UN chief welcomes six billionth baby. Retrieved March 6, 2005.
- Central Intelligence Agency (2004). CIA The World Factbook 2004. Retrieved February 13, 2005.
- United Nations (2001). United Nations Population Information Network. Retrieved February 13, 2005.
- United States Census Bureau (2004). Historical Estimates of World Population. Retrieved February 13, 2005.
- PopulationData.net (2005). PopulationData.net - Informations and maps about populations around the world.
- Population Reference Bureau www.prb.org - News and issues related to population.
- World Population Clock (2005). WorldPopClock.com - World population clock.
- Population Counter. See estimates of populations in various countries around the world and watch them get updated! China is the most active, so if you want to see what happens, just head straight for that densely populated country..