Return period? |
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A return period denotes a recurrence interval. It is a statistical measure of how often an event of a certain size is likely to happen. Within hydrology return period is important in relating extreme discharge to normal discharge. The return period has an inverse relationship with the probability that the event will be exceeded in any one year. For example, a 10-year flood has a 0.1 or 10% chance of being exceeded in any one year and a 50-year flood has a 0.02 (2%) chance of being exceed in any one year.
It is commonly assumed that a 10-year flood will occur, on average, once every 10 years and that a 100-year flood is such a big discharge that we expect it only to occur every 100 years. While this may be statistically true over thousands of years, it is incorrect to think of the return period in this way. The term "return period" is actually a misnomer.
